My objective is to explain the tools needed to measure and
predict shelter capacity and intensity options for any limited land area, given
the assumption that the Built Domain cannot continue to expand and consume its
agricultural land and the land of the Natural Domain indefinitely. This is the
knowledge we will need to more accurately consider the shelter potential of any
land area in any designated Built Domain.
Shelter begins as building mass we call gross building area.
Gross building area produces shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and
dominance that can be measured and predicted. Gross building area may be
occupied by any activity and molded to achieve any appearance. The more
fundamental point is that gross building area per buildable acre, or shelter
capacity, combines with occupant activity to determine the scope of revenue
potential per buildable acre; but excessive intensity can undermine the quality
of life desired. Different activities produce different revenue quantities per square
foot. This means that revenue per buildable acre is a function of the gross
building area, shelter capacity, intensity, and activity introduced. The combinations
combine to form neighborhoods, districts, cities, regions, and so on; but
cities have not had the information management systems, predictive algorithms,
and development control needed to reconcile the productive capacity of
municipal land per acre with the annual expense per acre required to deliver all desired
services. At this point, the debate over “essential” services begins in
every city hall facing budget cuts.
The gross building area introduced per acre of buildable land area
occupied is referred to as shelter capacity. The shelter capacity of a cell, or
land area, is a function of the building design category chosen and the design
specification values entered in its forecast model. Shelter capacity decisions
have intensity, intrusion, and dominance implications that can be calculated,
evaluated, and predicted at the cellular level of shelter formation.
It helps to recognize that gross building area is a
universal measurement; that gross building area divided by the buildable acres
occupied is a measure of shelter capacity; that shelter capacity can be
occupied by any activity; that shelter capacity can be used to measure or
calculate the physical intensity, intrusion, and dominance present or planned;
that physical intensity produces a host of social, psychological, environmental,
and economic implications; and that the intensity planned for activity within
the Built Domain contributes to the physical, social, and economic
relationships established.
Built Domain Classification
Built Domain classification begins with its urban and rural
phyla. It continues with the shelter, movement, open space, and life support
divisions within each phylum. The shelter division contains the building design
categories listed in Table 1. This relatively limited list can be occupied by
any activity group we currently refer to as a land use category. The separation
of building design category and capacity from land use activity serves to explain
a relationship that can be correlated to produce a desired economic yield per
acre when shelter capacity forecasting is available.
The specification topics related to each building design
category represent the initial language of shelter capacity design. I will
introduce Table 2 as an example in a moment. The values assigned to the shaded
values in a forecast model represent the parameters being considered to lead
all ensuing design decisions. These values define the gross building area
options under consideration. The intensity, intrusion, and
dominance implications of these decisions are also calculated in each forecast
model to permit the evaluation required to build knowledge and establish
leadership direction.
Building Design Categories in the
Shelter Division
Building design category classification begins with the parking
system under consideration. The parking decision, including a “no parking”
option, defines the building design category under consideration, since the
parking system is directly related to the gross building area that can be
created on a given land area. There are a number of variables involved in
addition to parking as you will soon see, but the principal determinants of shelter
capacity prediction are the core buildable area available, the building design
category, parking requirement , floor quantity, and unpaved project open space
percentage being considered.
Design Specification Values
When building classification is based on the parking system
involved, the number of potential building design categories is limited. This
makes measurement and mathematical prediction of gross building area and
shelter capacity options for all categories feasible in a short period of time
– when using design specification values in the spreadsheet format of a
forecast model. It is, after all, shelter capacity, intensity, and activity
that must be economically correlated on every acre within municipal boundaries
to protect its quality and source of life. The social, psychological,
environmental, and economic implications of these predictions will remain unknown
until evaluated by many related but currently independent professions. This means that independent professional observations can be correlated with the design specification values involved. Sprawl has failed to
achieve this correlated goal, even though it may produce immediate economic benefit
that proves temporary over time.
Forecast Model Example
I’ve introduced Table 2 is an example of a forecast model
I’ve introduced many times. It pertains to the G1.L1 predictive model. This is
shorthand for a forecast model that applies to all buildings served by a
surface parking lot around, but not under, the building (G1) when gross land
area is given (L1).
Table 2 is an example of the design specification vocabulary
used to measure and/or predict the shelter capacity of a given land area. The
shaded areas indicate decision locations for optional value entries that are
correlated by the model’s algorithm to produce the gross building area, shelter capacity, intensity,
and activity implied. A change to one or more of these value decisions produces
a revised template calculation. These shaded value decisions control the
formation of cellular capacity for shelter activity, intensity, and revenue within
cities.
Core Land Area
I’ve referred to the buildable land area remaining for
building cover (footprint) and parking cover on a given gross land area as the
core area. It is found through a process of subtraction that begins with the
value entered in cell F3. The shaded values entered from cell F4 to F29 are
subtracted to find the core area remaining (CORE) in cell F33 and G33. This is
a key variable in the master equation noted in cell B39.
The master equation also depends on the parking variables (s
& a) entered in shaded cells A35 and A36 and the floor quantity variable
(f) entered in shaded cells A44-A53.
Planning Forecast Panel
The Land Module and Core Module variables entered in the
shaded cells noted are used to calculate the gross building area options in
cells B44-B53 of the Planning Forecast Panel. Additional design information in
the panel can be calculated using the gross building area values predicted.
Implications Module
The shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and dominance
implications of the design specification values entered in the shaded cells of
Table 2 are calculated in its Implications Module based on the gross building
area options predicted in its Planning Forecast Panel. The implication
equations involved are noted on line 43 of the Implications Module.
Conclusion
Table 2 has been included to generally illustrate the
predictive format used for all forecast models listed in Table 1. They have all
been created to both measure existing design specification values for
evaluation of existing conditions and to predict the correlated implications of
contemplated design specification values. The concept is similar to our first
blood pressure measurements. In the beginning, these measurements were just an
idea. The identification, collection, evaluation, correlation, and sharing of
measurement and observation began to improve the diagnostic ability of
medicine. The measurement and prediction of shelter capacity makes this
possible for all the disciplines associated with the evaluation and planning of
a Built Domain that must become capable of coexisting with its source of life while
ensuring its quality of life within geographic limits.
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