Making the Argument for Shelter Capacity Evaluation

 I have pursued the proposition that we must learn to shelter the many activities of growing populations within limited geographic areas, without excessive intensity; since it seems self-evident that we cannot continue to consume the land for expanding shelter and cities indefinitely -- without consuming our source of life. This effort has produced a new building design category classification system and related series of forecast models for gross building area prediction, measurement, evaluation, knowledge formation, and leadership improvement. The emphasis has been on the gross building area potential of land, the shelter capacity options per buildable acre available, and the intensity implies, since shelter capacity determines the scope of activity we can shelter and the revenue potential implied long before final building plan, form and appearance are established.

Annexation and sprawl currently symbolize our approach to land conversion for shelter construction. Regulating land use relationships with zoning has proven to be a partial answer since this is not simply a matter of compatibility. This concept has stimulated sprawl and unnecessary consumption of an irreplaceable resource. Its limited success has encouraged annexation for more shelter and revenue since the effort gives the illusion of fiscal responsibility over the term of an elected official. This often proves inadequate over time as the annexed area ages and its “new” revenue does not keep pace with the city’s increase in public service cost per acre. Further annexation continues the illusion with more sprawl that often seeks future fiscal rescue with more consumption of a limited resource.

The problem continues because the physical relationship between shelter capacity, activity, intensity, intrusion, and dominance is not understood, cannot be defined, and cannot be mathematically correlated with economic potential. The result has been the promiscuous consumption of land in a blind search for an affordable and desirable quality of life. The tools available have simply been too limited to: (1) evaluate the entire set of options available; (2) build knowledge; and (3) produce leadership direction without unlimited consumption of our source of life.

The forecast models I’ve mentioned are based on a new classification system for building design based on the parking system employed. The result is six comprehensive categories that can produce increasing quantities of gross building area to shelter the many activity groups we have created. This is significant because the amount of gross building area in a city combines with permitted occupant activity to determine the majority of revenue received per buildable acre. The total received must equal a city’s total average annual cost per acre to operate. When it doesn’t a city begins to discuss the alternatives available to balance its budget.

Two templates, or forecast models, have been created for each building design category to predict either:

1)      The gross building area capacity of a given land area based on a given building design category and the values entered in the shaded cells of its design specification panel, or 

2)      The buildable land area required for a given gross building area objective based on a given building design category and the values entered in the shaded cells of its design specification panel.

A forecast model has been created for each of the objectives mentioned above for each building design category. An algorithm in each model processes the values entered for use by its master equation. The equation has been derived to answer one of the two questions above for a given building design category. Results are predicted for a series of floor quantity options entered in the first column of the model’s forecast panel. The gross building area or buildable land area results vary with floor quantity option considered. These options are translated into shelter capacity per buildable acre, intensity, intrusion, and dominance implications with the help of the equations noted in the implications module of the forecast model. The correlation of building category, design specification, forecast panel, and implications module permits the measurement and evaluation needed to build knowledge regarding the capacity of land, quality of life, and intensity implied by the specification values under consideration.

When gross building area can be accurately predicted or measured per acre, anything that is a function of the building square feet involved, such as cost, revenue, location, condition, population, traffic volume, and so on can be measured, estimated, or correlated to achieve a given objective within a city’s incorporated limits. It is the correlation of capacity, activity, intensity, location, and condition per acre that determines a city’s ability to meet a revenue objective and afford a desired quality of life.

To my knowledge, this is the first time that strategic architectural design decisions and implications have been separated, measured, and predicted in mathematical terms that have the potential to lead. Strategic decisions precede such tactical decisions as: building appearance; building form; building setbacks; floor plan subdivision; parking arrangement; site plan appearance; engineering sytems; and so on. Strategic decisions determine the shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and dominance present or proposed by the relationship of building mass, pavement, and unpaved open space specified for a given buildable land area. These decisions produce gross building area results and shelter capacity per buildable acre that have not been correlated with permitted activity to achieve an economic objective. They are, however, the foundation for tactical decisions that determine what we see. In other words, strategic and tactical decisions combine to produce and symbolize the quality of life we create.

I’ve called the forecast model package Shelter Capacity Evaluation for want of a better title, and written about earlier versions in my first book with McGraw-Hill in 2001. It relates in my opinion to: city planning, urban design, landscape architecture, architecture, civil engineering, government, law, zoning; real estate development, environmental assessment, demography, appraisal, banking, and investment. These are at least some of the professions that consume or evaluate land to provide shelter for all human activity.

I’ve pursued this effort because I believe we must do a much better job of predicting the capacity of land to shelter the many activities of growing populations within a geographically limited Built Domain. Annexation and sprawl currently symbolize the threat this lack of leadership ability represents.

I am attaching a copy of a sample spreadsheet that predicts the gross building area potential of a given land area based on the variables entered in the shaded cells of its template. It pertains to the G1 Building Design Category (G1 buildings have surface parking around, but not under, the building on the same premise.) When the gross land area is given the forecast model is labeled G1.L1. When a gross building area objective is given and the objective is to determine the buildable land area needed given various floor quantity options, the forecast model is labeled G1.B1. 

PS: I would like to introduce the forecast models I’ve created as a subscription software application and am inquiring if you would be willing to undertake this effort in the hope of multiplying your investment as a percentage of its profit. I am not interested in pursuing the sales and marketing associated with the business aspects of this effort, but am willing to serve as a consultant. I will only respond to investors I consider serious with a proven business track record and a willingness to explore new opportunities.