The Planet's Law of Limits

Resolving growth within limits will challenge our ability to adapt.

I reposted the message below from the UN with some comments. I don't think I made my point and would like to revise these comments by first dissecting the message as noted below.

UN – Habitat:  

United Nations Human Settlement Programme 

“FORECAST: By 2050, 7 billion people will live in cities. 

FORECAST: That means that for the next 30 YEARS, we have to accommodate 2 million people moving in cities. Every. Week.

ARGUMENT 1): We cannot carry on with business as usual. The planet can't take it.

FACT: Construction uses 30% of all the resources globally, and produces 40% of GHG emissions.

ARGUMENT 2): We have to follow a truly circular economy model and follow the "6 R’s":

POLICY 1) - REDUCE: Implementing strategies to reduce waste and minimize resource consumption during construction and maintenance processes.

TACTIC - REUSE: Promoting the reuse of materials, components, and buildings to extend their lifespan and reduce the need for new construction.

TACTIC - RECYCLE: Establishing robust recycling systems for construction and demolition waste.

TACTIC - RECOVER: Exploring opportunities to recover energy and resources from waste materials.

TACTIC - REPURPOSE: Repurposing materials and buildings to give them a new life and purpose.

POLICY 2) - RETHINK: Changing mindsets and adopting innovative approaches to urban planning, design, and construction.”

I couldn’t agree more with the arguments presented, but they fall into the category of opinion that depends on Policy 2 for leadership success. Policy 1 is the topic that struck me since it is titled “Reduce” but avoids the issue implied by Argument 1 - population growth. I have also avoided it, but have attempted to imply the problem by deriving equations for the shelter capacity of land. I have argued that reasonable shelter capacity can be exceeded with excessive massing, parking, and pavement intensity that compromises our quality of life and have provided the mathematical means to calculate these implications. I have also argued that land can be consumed by sprawl that consumes our source of life. Both can be mathematically predicted and their implications can be measured and evaluated. In other words, shelter capacity implies a limit to population growth if our source and quality of life is to be protected and preserved. Growth without correlation and balance is a recipe for excessive consumption, decline, and extinction on a planet with limited resources.

Leadership requires a goal. I would like to suggest one: We must learn to shelter growing populations within a geographically limited Built Domain designed to protect their quality and source of life, the Natural Domain.

We live on a planet with limited resources that is not a land without end. There is a law of limits that we must accept to survive and it contradicts our concept of unlimited growth as beneficial. Policy 1 will be incomplete until we learn how to correlate, balance, and reconcile population growth and quality of life with the capacity of the planet to both sustain and survive.

The adjustment required to mentally step from parasite to planning and preservation is a challenge that many have questioned our ability to achieve -- given our tendency to argue and diverge over the slightest difference of opinion.

Walter M. Hosack: October 1, 2023

PS: The tactics mentioned fall into various objective categories. Thinking about these categories reveals the true scope of the task ahead, since the tactics mentioned are a random collection of the large number associated with each of the many objectives implied.