SEEKING BALANCE - The Principles of Shelter Capacity Evaluation

 

This is a companion to the essay I recently published entitled, “Axioms and Economic Fundamentals of City Design”. In hindsight, it should have been written first, but the problem with ideas is that they rarely occur in order, at least for me.

1)      We live on a planet in a Built Domain constructed from the resources of its Natural Domain.

2)      We build shelter in the converted Built Domain to survive.

3)      The Built Domain expands to serve population growth by consuming land in the Natural Domain and agriculture in its anatomy.

4)      The Built Domain contains Urban and Rural Phyla. Both include Movement, Open Space, and Life Support Divisions that serve a Shelter Division.

5)      Building classification by parking system establishes a foundation for measurement and prediction of shelter capacity options for any given land area.

6)      We cannot plan for the limited use of land for shelter until we can accurately measure and predict the shelter capacity spectrum of options.

7)      All buildings used to shelter our activity fall into one of six building design classification categories, regardless of appearance:

a.      G1: All buildings that consume a portion of the core land area and are served by a surface parking lot around, but not under, the building on the same premise, excluding land reserved for future expansion. (Core land area is site plan remaining for building and parking cover after all other demands and liabilities are subtracted.)

b.      G2: All buildings that consume a portion of the core land area and are served by a surface parking around and/or under the building on the same premise, excluding land reserved for future expansion.

c.      S1: All buildings served by adjacent parking garage levels, spaces, and auxiliary surface parking that consume a portion of the core land area on the same premise.S2 All buildings and auxiliary surface parking served by an underground parking garage within the buildable land area of the premise.

d.      S2: All buildings and auxiliary surface parking served by an underground parking garage within the buildable land area of the premise.

e.      S3: All buildings and auxiliary surface parking served by a parking garage below the building within the core land area of the same premise

f.        NP: All buildings not served by surface or structure parking on the same premise.

8)      A building design category may be used to shelter any permitted activity in an activity group (generally referred to as a land use category) such as, but not limited to, the following:

a.      Residential

b.      Commercial

c.      Industrial

d.      Institutional

9)      The gross building area potential of a building design category on a given land area depends on the information entered in the Design Specification Template of its forecast model.

10) A gross building area forecast or measurement in square feet (GBA) divided by the buildable land anticipated or occupied in acres (BLAC) is a measurement of the  shelter capacity of the land utilized (SFAC). In other words, SFAC = GBA  / BLAC.

11) The spectrum of shelter capacity measurement ranges from excessively low to excessively high, and not all measurements and predictions are desirable.

12) A shelter capacity measurement has measurable intensity, intrusion, and context implications based on consistent implication equations included in every building design category forecast model.

13) Implication measurements are like blood pressure readings. They can be compared and evaluated to build knowledge regarding the physical, social, psychological, environmental, and economic results produced.

14)  The acquisition of shelter capacity knowledge depends on a consistent measurement and evaluation research program. (For instance, the first blood pressure readings were only the beginning of shared evaluation and comparison that led to medical knowledge.)

15) Implication measurements have been referred to as Tegimenic measurements after the Latin word for shelter, tegimen.

16) Tegimenic knowledge, or Tegimenology, can be used to guide leadership decisions that affect our ability to provide land for shelter in a Built Domain defined to protect its source of life, the Natural Domain.

17) In other words, shelter capacity evaluation, or Tegimenics, is a mathematical method of measuring or predicting the shelter capacity of land and measuring the human implications of these decisions.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further information about the building design categories, design specification topics, prediction panels, and implication modules of shelter capacity forecast models, can be found in my book, “The Equations of Urban Design”, using the following url:

https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B001IR3ODO?ref_=pe_584750_33951330

You may also be interested in some of the 285 essays on my blog at www.wmhosack.blogspot.com. They address topics related to the use of shelter capacity evaluation forecast models and their implication measurement modules.

Walter M. Hosack, July 2026

photo credit: Jean Poussin

 

Axioms and Economic Fundamentals of City Design

 

I’d like to begin with what I believe are a few axioms of city design.

1)      A building produces revenue per square foot. The amount
produced is a function of building area, condition, and occupant activity.

2)      The total revenue from all building occupant activity, divided by the gross building area in sq. ft., equals the average revenue produced per sq. ft.

3)      The total revenue from all building occupant activity divided by the buildable acres occupied equals the revenue produced per acre.

4)      Gross building area divided by the buildable acres occupied equals gross building area per buildable acre, or shelter capacity.*

5)      Shelter capacity times total average revenue per sq. ft. equals revenue per acre occupied.

6)      Shelter capacity times total average revenue planned per building sq. ft. determines the revenue per acre anticipated.

7)      The shelter capacity, activity, and condition distributed on acres throughout a city determines its economic stability. (These acres can easily be squandered for underperforming shelter capacity and activity when these relationships are not part of a city’s planning information and shelter capacity evaluation system.)

8)      The sum of all annual revenue produced in a city divided by its total taxable acres must equal or exceed a city’s total annual expense divided by its taxable acres.

9)      A city that does not know the revenue potential per building sq. ft. of various land use activities cannot calculate the economic implications of shelter capacity, intensity, and activity options. (This means it is inadequately prepared to plan and adjust for the distribution of shelter capacity and activity needed to produce annual revenue equal to or exceeding its annual expense per acre.)

10) The distribution of shelter capacity, intensity, activity, and condition throughout a city determines its physical context, economic stability, and social, psychological, and environmental quality of life.

NARRATIVE

From my experience, a land use plan does not consciously distribute shelter capacity and activity to produce municipal revenue per taxable acre equal to a city’s total annual expense per taxable acre. Economic growth depends on the decisions of private investment, annexation, and sprawling consumption of agriculture and the natural domain. It is a random approach to economic stability with an unending appetite.

AN ALTERNATIVE

Axiom 8: The sum of all annual revenue produced in a city divided by its taxable acres must equal or exceed a city’s total annual expense divided by its taxable acres.

Existing economic performance can be calculated at the parcel level when its shelter capacity is measured and multiplied by its occupant revenue per sq. ft. When the result is divided by the acres occupied, the result is the revenue per acre produced by the address involved. The sum of all taxable parcel calculations divided by the total taxable acres involved yields the revenue productivity of a city’s taxable land per acre. This productivity can then be compared with a city’s total average annual expense per acre to monitor and plan for its future with informed economic development planning.

Planned economic performance can be calculated at the parcel level when a shelter capacity objective for the parcel is multiplied by the anticipated occupant revenue per sq. ft. When the result is divided by the acres occupied, the result is the planned revenue per acre that can be compared with a city’s total annual expense per acre.

The comparison between city expense and revenue per taxable acre is a bottom line comparison that I don’t believe cities are prepared to compute or monitor. They lack the relational databases, activity revenue information, and shelter capacity evaluation science required to adequately plan for the balanced distribution of shelter capacity and activity needed. This will continue as long as a land use plan remains a map and a zoning ordinance is used to arbitrarily dictate the form that emerges without considering its economic implications. The resulting budget deficiencies and fear of becoming “land-locked” have prompted continuing annexation and sprawl seeking to produce new revenue from new land. It often proves inadequate because the action is not mathematically correlated with the capacity, activity, intensity, and context results that determine the economic implications of the leadership decisions involved.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Further information can be found among the 285 essays on my blog at www.wmhosack.blogspot.com.

These essays have contributed to my book, “The Equations of Urban Design” that can be found using the following url:

https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B001IR3ODO?ref_=pe_584750_33951330

The essay, “The Least a Smart City Should Know”, may be of particular interest and can be found using the following url:

              https://wmhosack.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-least-smart-city-should-know.html

Walter M. Hosack, July 2026

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*Shelter capacity options for any given parcel can be predicted with the templates of Shelter Capacity Evaluation, or Tegimenics. Existing shelter capacity can also be measured using the same template parameters to determine a parcel’s current shelter capacity, intensity, context, and revenue contributions to a city’s target objective per acre.

Walter M Hosack, July 2026

Shelter Supply, Demand and Capacity

 

My work has focused on predicting the shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications of correlated site planning and floor quantity design decisions at the cellular (parcel) level of urban anatomy -- because the shelter capacity of land within limited geographic areas will define our ability to shelter growing population activity within contained areas designed to coexist with their remaining source of life, the Natural Domain. As a result, the building classification system and template format of standardized design specification topics derived can also be used to measure the template topics of existing shelter projects to determine their implications for comparison.

POPULATON GROWTH

Population growth seeking shelter for increasing activity is the engine that drives all urban and rural construction. This engine will continue to consume agriculture and our source of life, the Natural Domain, until we realize the issue is much larger than land use compatibility. Ensuring compatibility simply produces an expanding Built Domain of metastasizing shelter cells attempting to consume their source of life.

SHELTER CAPACITY

Tegimenics, or shelter capacity evaluation, is based on building design classification categories and evaluation of template design specifications that define options, are correlated to predict their implications, and compared to existing conditions measured with the same template yardstick. It is one way to build the knowledge and credibility needed to argue for adequate shelter within sustainable, symbiotic limits.

The goal, in my opinion, is to provide shelter for the many activities of growing populations within geographic limits defined to protect their quality and source of life. We cannot pursue this at the present time without the templates, algorithms, and master equations needed to measure the shelter capacity of land and evaluate the lifestyle implications of development and redevelopment decisions with improved comparative knowledge.

Shelter capacity is gross building area present in square feet per buildable acre occupied. The amount that can be provided per buildable acre is a function of the land remaining for building cover and parking after all other present or planned pavement and open space areas are subtracted. I’ve called this the “core area” remaining. The mathematical relationship between parking requirements and floor quantity options in the core area determines the building cover, or footprint area remaining for shelter in square feet. When floor quantity options are multiplied by the footprint available, the result is the gross building area options present or planned. Gross building area is the raw material of shelter formation. It can accommodate any permitted activity and is served by a city’s movement, open space, and life support systems. Fortunately, gross building area, shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context can  be measured and/or predicted with the equations and templates of urban design.

The templates that use these equations to forecast and/or measure the implications of shelter capacity are listed in Table 1. Explanations for each chapter are presented in my book, “The Equations of Urban Design”. It can be found at the following url:

https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B001IR3ODO?ref_=pe_584750_33951330

COMPARISON AND EVALUATION

The results predicted or measured using the templates of shelter capacity evaluation are comparable because they are based on the same standardized template of requested quantity measurements. This establishes comparison and evaluation as a quantitative foundation for the pursuit of increased knowledge.

The optional design specification values that produce shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context are not all desirable. The challenge will be to identify those capable of sheltering the activities of increasing populations within limited geographic areas designed to protect both their quality and source of life.

IMPLICATIONS

Gross building area is shelter that may be occupied by any permitted activity. The distribution of shelter capacity and activity throughout a city establishes the physical intensity, intrusion, and context of its social, psychological, environmental, and economic quality of life. This distribution can no longer be left to chance if we are to have any chance of reconciling a city’s economic foundation with the planet’s capacity to sustain life.

BUILD YOUR OWN

The template examples in each chapter of “The Equations of Uban Design” display all equations needed to reproduce the template format. Producing your own will give you the ability to evaluate design quantity decisions and correlate the shelter capacity of land with its economic potential, as well as its context and quality of life implications based on the comparative knowledge acquired.

The last pages of each chapter in “The Equations of Urban Design” contain the derivation of the master equations used by each template to predict gross building area or buildable land area options from the mathematically correlated design specification values entered. The capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications of these measurements or predictions are calculated in each column of each template’s Implications Module for consistent comparison and evaluation. The implication equations involved are noted at the head of each implication column.

CONCLUSION

I believe it is a self-evident fact that every herd on the planet is subject to the planet’s unwritten law of limits, and that it grows until it exceeds these limits. We are no different, but we are the only herd given the ability to anticipate these limits and act accordingly. It means, however, that we must accept the challenge before we antagonize a planet that does not compromise with ignorance.

Walter M. Hosack, July 2026

NOTE: Table 1 is an improvement of the Table of Contents in "The Equations of Urban  Design".