I should pause to explain a few terms used in this essay.
1) Shelter capacity is equal to gross building area in sq. ft. per buildable acre occupied.
1) The maximum gross building area potential of a given buildable land area is a function of the values entered in the design specification template of a building category forecast model.
2) Architectural intensity is equal to shelter
capacity times the percentage of impervious cover planned or present divided by
10,000.
3) Architectural intrusion is equal to floor
quantity divided by five.
4) Architectural context is equal to intensity plus
intrusion.
We have never had equations and forecast models capable of accurately
predicting the gross building area potential of a given buildable land area based
on a comprehensive set of design value decisions and a chosen building design
category. (I can’t footnote this so please see my note at the end of this essay.)
This means that we have never been able to correlate population growth and
shelter demand with desirable context compositions of shelter capacity,
intensity, and intrusion on a given land area whose cellular growth is limited
to prevent consumption of our source of life.
Context measurement and evaluation of existing design
specification values related to a given project and building design category can
define the parameters needed to produce the balance we seek. It can also define
what we seek to avoid.
Context prediction based on a building design category
and its related design specification decisions can be used to lead both public
and private shelter design toward the physical, social, psychological,
environmental, and economic context we seek. This leadership will improve based
on the knowledge gained from context measurement and evaluation recorded in a
common, comprehensive mathematical language.
Context measurement and evaluation represents knowledge
accumulation and the foundation for leadership language. Its conclusions can be
used to defend context prediction. The combination can improve the contribution
of design to the political decisions concerned with population growth, shelter
capacity, and environmental preservation.
SUMMARY ARGUMENT:
1)
The gross building area potential of a given
buildable land area is based on a building design category choice, the value
decisions entered in the design specification module of its forecast model, and
a choice among the floor quantity options planned or permitted and entered in
the model.
2)
An incredible number of shelter capacity options
are available based on the building design category chosen and the design
specification decisions entered in its forecast model as I have discussed in
previous essays, and many of these options are undesirable.
3)
Gross
building area options combine with occupant activity options on a given land
area to produce public and private financial implications. These economic options
also have measurable physical intensity, intrusion, and context implications.
4)
A common, correlated design language is needed
to reconcile the private profit and public revenue implications of design
specification decisions since they produce the shelter capacity, intensity,
intrusion and context of the project spaces/places we form into neighborhoods,
districts, and cities.
5)
Without a common leadership language, government
will continue to pursue development, annexation and redevelopment to reconcile
shelter demand and revenue deficiencies based on a strategy of hope and history.
it has not proven to be an adequate foundation for anticipation. Private
enterprise will continue to pursue development, annexation and redevelopment in
pursuit of profit without concern for land consumption and public revenue
deficiencies that may appear years after project completion and profit success.
6)
The private and public sectors do not have a
common leadership language capable of reconciling private profit and public
revenue objectives with the shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context
decisions needed to produce a desirable quality of life.
7)
Data science is needed to correlate occupant
activity with the revenue results produced per sq. ft. of gross building area
occupied. The revenue implications of shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion,
context, and activity design decisions cannot be predicted without this
information. Real estate developers have estimated the profit and expense
potential per sq. ft. of activity for decades if not centuries. Government has
no comparable library of knowledge that can be used to evaluate the public
revenue and expense implications of a private development proposal, but it
assumes these implications over the lifetime of the project when it is
approved. In other words, a farmer understands the yield per crop and acre
better than a city understands the yield from its activities and zones. These
relationships, however, determine the quality of life each can afford over
time.
The urban design objective is to correlate population
growth, shelter composition and financial stability within sustainable limits
that protect our quality and source of life. The objective cannot be pursued
with the language of fine art. It will require the mathematics of shelter
capacity evaluation. It is a tall order that challenges our parasitic growth in
a Darwinian version of symbiotic adaptation. Success will not be a divine gift,
however. We are expected to continue building the knowledge and understand the
discipline required to shelter and survive.
Walter M. Hosack: November 2024
FOOTNOTE: Nor have we had equations capable of accurately
predicting the buildable land needed for a given gross building area objective
based on a comprehensive set of design value decisions and a chosen building
design category.
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