Shelter Questions Facing Government, City Planning, Urban Design, and Economic Stability

 

How can we avoid consuming too much land to shelter growing activities that produce too little public revenue per acre when compared to a city’s total average annual expense per acre?

What is the quantity of shelter area in square feet per buildable acre (shelter capacity) that produces excessive, uncomfortable physical intensity, intrusion, and context in a city’s physical anatomy of shelter, movement, open space, and life support?

We won’t be able to avoid excessive consumption of land, or excessive shelter intensity on too little land, until we can respond to the questions above with correlated, quantitative answers based on measurement, research, knowledge and prediction rather than arbitrary opinion.

One of six building design categories must be chosen to respond to these questions, and values must be assigned to the design specification topics in the category’s forecast model to predict optional answers. A change to one or more values assigned to the specification topics in a forecast model produces another series of shelter capacity options and implication predictions. A forecast model uses the values or measurements entered to correlate their shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications. Many of the options have undesirable implications; but they have never been identified with measurement and evaluation at existing locations. We have simply observed the results and responded with intuitive opinion regarding the form, function, and appearance presented.

Shelter capacity, intensity, and intrusion measurements have physical, social, psychological, environmental, and economic consequences; but these implications will never be discovered without the Shelter Capacity and Intensity Models needed to consistently measure existing examples and predict options. Consistent measurement and evaluation can lead to the discovery of design specification knowledge and evolving parameters for land area, building design category, and occupant activity decisions that can repeat success and avoid failure. At this point knowledge becomes scientific language with the ability to duplicate what began as an assumption. This is the leadership foundation an urban design plan needs to produce the quality of life and economic stability we desire within the places we build.

Consistent, comprehensive measurement and evaluation combined with shelter capacity and intensity prediction can help us build knowledge and use land wisely when we choose to shelter the activities of growing populations within limited geographic areas designed to protect both their quality and source of life. I have discussed this topic and its software in many essays over the years. Interested readers can find some of these essays on LinkedIn and a more extensive library on my blog, “Cities and Design”, at www.wmhosack.blogspot.com. I hope to find a sponsor in the future for the publication of Shelter Capacity and Intensity software on a subscription web site that will make it a useful design discussion and decision language for all those concerned with the provision of shelter for the activities of growing populations on a planet with limited land area that we must learn to symbiotically share.

Walter M. Hosack: Thanksgiving 2024