I have struggled with the zoning ordinance method of land
use regulation since I was first exposed to its presence in classes focused on architecture,
city planning and urban design. The assumption was, and is, that it can lead both
buildings and their occupant activity toward healthy, safe, compatible, and
financially stable relationships with the same statutory format we use for our
criminal codes of conduct.
The legal format works for city planning when zoning
regulates the location and compatibility of activity. It begins to break down
when it attempts to address building design specifications that must be
correlated for leadership success. For instance, density, parking, building
height, and open space are currently independent requirements. They often conflict
and require variance approval. These exceptions to the law represent random
leadership searching for direction and often sprawling or producing excessive
intensity as a consequence.
SHELTER CAPACITY EVALUATION
NOTE: Shelter capacity is equal to gross building area in square feet divided by
the buildable land area occupied in acres, excluding future expansion area.
Building design categories, forecast models, design
specification templates, and the equations of shelter capacity evaluation have
been derived to measure and predict the gross building area capacity of land.
These are the options needed to accurately predict their social and economic
implications.
The goal is to improve the efficiency of land consumption
for shelter in the Urban and Rural Phyla of a Built Domain to prevent
consumption of its source of life, the Natural Domain.
I have mentioned on numerous occasions that shelter capacity
may be occupied by any permitted activity. This is significant because the
allocation of shelter capacity and activity on every parcel within the zoning
districts of a city determines the revenue and investment potential of these
districts; and the total average revenue per acre must equal or exceed a city’s
total average annual expense per acre. This does not mean, however, that the
average revenue calculated is able to deliver the quality of life desired. It
does mean that parcel level information, data correlation, shelter capacity
prediction, activity allocation, and interactive mapping are keys to the evaluation,
understanding, and management of a city’s physical, social, and economic health.
RANDOM LEADERSHIP
Table 1 illustrates the order of topics in a sample zoning
ordinance. They are summarized in the description column of the table. The section
column identifies the category related to each topic. It illustrates random organization
that requires a careful review of the entire ordinance for all requirements
pertaining to a project.
Table 2 rearranges the topics of Table 1 under section
titles to streamline the search for ordinance topics of concern. The topic number
column reveals the random organization of Table 1 and the rearrangement that
has taken place in Table 2.
Table 3 rearranges the sections and topics of Table 2 under chapter
titles to further streamline the search effort. The topic number column again
reveals the rearrangement of Table 1 topics that has taken place.
The Land Use Chapter of Table 3 contains a section entitled
“Activity Regulations”. The numbers 1121-1140 refer to zoning district chapters
that list permitted activities for each district in the city. These activities
are supplemented with additional density, parking, and building height
regulations that are not mathematically correlated as previously mentioned.
This makes their combined implications, and dwelling unit quantities impossible
to predict; site planning a guessing game; and leadership an exercise of
uncertainty generating adjustments referred to as “variances” or exceptions to
the law. It is no wonder design efforts flounder in the leadership confusion
and unrealistic expectations.
Table 4 is a summary of random residential design
specification requirements distilled from a sample ordinance. The organization
has simplified the search process by placing all quantity requirements related
to a zone on a single line, but it has not solved the correlation problem. As
an example, the development cover percentage limits in Column R were intended
to limit stormwater runoff, excessive storm sewer demand, and basement flooding;
but they were not correlated with the minimum land area remaining for home
size, parking, pavement, and unpaved open space. They were isolated
requirements whose combined implications could not be accurately predicted.
Table 5 illustrates a portion of the Principal, Accessory,
and Conditional Permitted Use Section 1121 in the sample zoning ordinance used
for this essay. The section was relocated to the Land Use Chapter, Activity
Regulations Section, and specific location shown in Table 3. The point is not
simply reorganization, however. The section contains random definitions, regulations,
directions, and exceptions that compromise the document’s leadership clarity. This
is not a criticism of the subjects mentioned, however. They represent community
concerns addressed over time, but they should lead the reader to question the primary
leadership objectives involved and the clarity needed to lead a global army of
designers. Guiding social activity in existing shelter is different from guiding
the evolving physical and economic pattern of shelter in an urban anatomy.
Zoning ordinances appear to have focused on the former and master plans on the
latter, but an urban design language capable of correlating a master land use
plan with its physical and economic implications has been missing.
FORECAST MODELS
Table 6 is one of many forecast models created to accurately
predict the shelter capacity of land based on the design specification values
entered. It pertains to the G1 Building Design Category when occupied by
non-residential activity with surface parking around but not under the building
on the same premise. Shelter capacity is a keystone prediction because it has intensity,
context, and economic implications when occupied by activity.
Familiar readers have seen Forecast Model G1.L1 before. I
won’t review it again. I will simply point out that the shaded boxes in the table
are there to receive design specification values, and that these values may be
modified to explore shelter capacity options that have measurable intensity,
revenue, investment, cost, traffic, and so on implications.
I’ve included Table 7, Forecast Model G1.R1.L1, as an
example of the shaded cell design specifications associated with the G1 Building
Design Category when occupied by R1 single-family residential activity.
Table 8 presents Forecast Model G1.R3.L1 as an example of
the shaded cell design specifications associated with the G1 Building Design Category
when occupied by R3 multi-family residential activity.
FOCUSED LEADERSHIP
Zoning has focused on the compatibility of activity. The
shelter capacity of land and its economic potential has not been correlated.
This is becoming a more obvious weakness as we become increasingly aware that
we must define a limited land area to shelter growing populations and protect their
remaining source of life.
Shelter capacity leadership can be established when adopted
values are entered in the shaded cells of
a building design category and activity forecast model. These are the topic
cells and correlated values that can lead.
Building design category classification and forecast model
derivation has been created to make the shelter capacity of land consistently
measurable and predictable for any permitted activity. The results produce
levels of intensity that have many related revenue, investment, cost, traffic,
population, context and so on implications, and they are all mathematically
predictable based on the values entered in a shelter capacity forecast model.
USING SHELTER CAPACITY FORECAST MODELS
Shelter capacity evaluation will require new public
investment in the software, data, and mapping systems required to reconcile
land use allocation and shelter capacity decisions with their physical, social,
and economic implications.
From an urban design standpoint, shelter capacity specification
and activity allocation determines the intensity, intrusion, and context
introduced at the pedestrian level of the Built Doman. In other words, shelter
capacity measurement and evaluation makes beneficial leadership direction measurable,
definable, predictable, and economically defensible.
FINAL COMMENT
Physical design mandates are scattered throughout a zoning
ordinance. They are intermingled with activity regulations because the
distinction between physical design and social activity is not clearly
understood. This has led to a great deal of confusion in my opinion. It may be
helpful to keep in mind that gross building area may be occupied by any
permitted activity, and that the combination determines the scope of activity
and financial stability involved.
Shelter capacity forecast models focus on the design
specification decisions that produce the building mass, parking, pavement, and
open space quantities of shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context
composition. The composition is occupied by activity. If you wish to influence
the space and form of shelter design, the specification topics in the forecast
models of shelter capacity evaluation represent the parcel level quantity
decisions involved.
FURTHER INFORMATION
All forecast models discussed in my previous essays, and in
my book “The Equations of Urban Design”, are interactive spreadsheets. The
shaded cells are unlocked to permit the evaluation of design decision
alternatives. The remaining cells are locked since they are part of the
operating algorithm. The intention is to make the same leadership language available
to all interested public and private shelter interests.
A common, correlated language may help us jointly move
toward the goal of shelter for the activities of growing populations within a
geographically limited Built Domain designed to protect its quality and source
of life, the Natural Domain.
Further information about the building design categories, forecast
models, design specification topics, prediction panels, and implication modules
of shelter capacity forecast and evaluation models can be found in my book,
“The Equations of Urban Design”, available from Amazon.com.
You may also be interested in some of the 294 essays on my
blog at www.wmhosack.blogspot.com.
They address topics related to the use of shelter capacity evaluation forecast
models and their implication modules.
Walter M. Hosack, October 2026
Image credit: NASA, ESA, and R. Fedriani
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