The Land We Take For Granted

 Ancient wisdom has taught us that this is a world without end and that populations should be fruitful and multiply in the face of many threats to their existence. This has led us to believe that we are free to consume unlimited land area for the shelter and agriculture we need to protect a multiplying population from the threat of an unstable environment.

Apollo 11 has proven to all but the chronically cynical that the Earth’s geography is not a land without end; that its water supply is limited; and its atmosphere is a thin veil of protection that can be easily contaminated by the activity of expanding populations. Those with imagination could also see from the photographs transmitted that our growing microscopic presence was creating a Built Domain that was consuming the face of a limited Natural Domain that is our source of life. This has been as difficult to comprehend without satellite photography as the microscopic cause of bubonic plague in the Middle Ages and the geologic change that has occurred over millennia.

In a word, Apollo 11 told us that the Earth is not a geographic world without limits for all present. The pictures, however, have not told us that we are the only species on Earth with the capacity to anticipate the consequences of excess and diagnose the illness. The history of all other life on Earth simply stands in mute testimony to the consequences of inadequate adaptation to the unwritten limits implied.

I’ve chosen shelter sprawl to give substance to this sermon since I believe it is subconsciously accepted as a symptom of disease without a cure at the present time. It is currently treated with land use plans, zoning remedies, building codes, and legal principles that have attempted to reconcile the fundamental conflict between the concepts of growth and the limits of land area. Unfortunately, sprawling growth has consistently been permitted to consume agriculture and both continue to convert and consume the land of the Natural Domain that is our source of life.

If urban, suburban, and agricultural expansion were geographically limited to preserve the Natural Domain, the only remaining solution for growth would be redevelopment and increased vertical shelter solutions within these limits and they would not necessarily improve the quality of life provided. The correlation of shelter capacity, growth, activity, and economic potential within geographic limits is currently beyond the scope of our isolated and often conflicting planning, building, and zoning efforts. In fact, the correlation of land consumption with gross building area capacity per acre, activity, economic potential, and quality of life has been left to the decisions of a marketplace concerned with the profit potential of an individual project. This has been the default approach because public leadership has not had the language required to improve the common benefit associated with these decisions. Annexation has been the default solution to increase the land area available and eliminate public economic deficits when vacant land has been available. Decline has threatened when it isn’t. As a result, the concept of “balance” has been a constantly sought mirage consuming the land with repeated annexation on its Ponzi-like path to an economic mirage without the equations needed to solve the problem.

It is entirely possible to mathematically correlate land consumption with gross building area capacity, activity, economic potential, and quality of life within limited geographic areas when the leadership topics and values for a surprisingly limited classification of building design categories are comprehensively defined and correlated with the algorithms and master equations required. The results can define a limited Built Domain that is not defined by wandering consumption that is a disease attempting to reconcile opinion without adequate language and knowledge. I think we all understand at some level of comprehension that limits are required. It remains to define them and the path required with a language that can lead us to consistent results.

The measurements and predictions of gross building area for any number of buildable acres is based on the values entered in the shaded boxes of a forecast model. Each model pertains to a given building design category and master equation. The gross building area that can be provided per buildable acre and floor quantity selection represents the shelter capacity of the land area. Since shelter capacity can be occupied by any activity, this is the first step needed to determine its activity capacity, population capacity, revenue potential, traffic generation, construction cost, infrastructure demand, and so on.

Up until now I have mentioned individual land areas that are often referred to as lots, parcels, or project areas for shelter construction. The Built Domain is an organism that contains countless numbers of these cells¹, and our work will not be done until we can lead the growth of all cells toward a symbiotic anatomy that ceases to be a threat to ourselves and our source of life – the Natural Domain. There is a lot of work to be done to reach this goal with the relational databases, information management systems, and integrated master equations required.

The forecast models, algorithms, and equations mentioned in precious essays are simply a strand in a web has not been correlated.² We can predict the weather more accurately than we can predict the shelter capacity of land and the population capacity of the planet when excess is limited, but we may be starting to realize that everyone is subject to the planet’s unwritten Law of Limits. These forecast models permit anyone to predict the shelter capacity options for land so that we can learn to live within limits designed to protect our quality of life within a Built Domain limited to protect our source of life. 

I have contributed the conceptual framework and technical information needed to continue this discussion in my book, “The Equations of Urban Design”. It is available on Amazon.com but the title may have been an unfortunate choice since the book is not consumed with equations. They are simply the foundation on which the language format of shelter capacity measurement, prediction, evaluation, and leadership is based. I have also published over 190 essays regarding this topic at my blog www.wmhosack.blogspot.com for those who may be interested in contributing to this work.

I included earlier software on the CD’s included with my first two books, but the copyright was ignored on too many occasions. This earlier software was not based on the derivation of master equations and is now quite outdated. I may provide the new software used for “Equations” on a subscription basis in the future if there is sufficient interest and the spirit moves me.

Walter M. Hosack: December, 2022

1 - Shelter cells are present in the Urban and Rural Phyla of the Built Domain and are served by arterial cells in the Movement, Open Space, and Life Support Divisions of these phyla.

2 - A separate set of forecast models and master equations has been created to predict the buildable land area needed to accommodate a given building design category and gross building area objective.