Our housing efforts have been tactical efforts by independent
builders without strategic direction from an adequate research effort and
leadership language. Our response has in
volved annexation, urban sprawl,
excessive intensity, and promiscuous consumption of agriculture and the natural
domain. These tactical efforts have been piecemeal solutions. They will not
solve the housing shortage without strategic direction from a leadership language
based on targeted data accumulation; a consistent method of measurement,
prediction and evaluation; a correlated mathematical foundation; and a library
of accumulating knowledge. This missing foundation is fertile ground for
divergent, often irreconcilable, opinions expressed during discordant,
undisciplined public hearings. It is encouraged when evidence-based credibility
is lacking and opposing opinion is based on unstable assumptions and/or
conflicting motivation. The result has been continuing growth and consumption
on a planet with limited land and resources.
The forecast models of Shelter Capacity Evaluation have been my
attempt to introduce a mathematical, measureable, and consistent vocabulary of design
specification topics for a series of building design categories. The values
assigned to these topics in the design specification template of a forecast
model are correlated by equations in the model to produce shelter capacity,
intensity, intrusion, and dominance implications for comparative assessment.
This is data that can be used for the evaluation of shelter capacity decisions that
involve site planning, building mass, pavement, and unpaved open space quantities
in project areas of any scale. Shelter capacity evaluation is directly related
to housing shortage solutions since shelter capacity predictions are based on
gross building area forecasts that represent housing capacity when used for
residential activity.
Shelter capacity or gross building area per buildable acre is
produced by the design topic values entered in a building design category
template. These topic values are mathematically correlated to produce gross
building area, shelter capacity, and intensity predictions. These capacity results
can be evaluated long before building form and appearance become issues. This gives
us the opportunity to plan shelter for growing populations within a limited
Built Domain designed to protect their physical, social, and economic quality
of life while also preserving their source of life – the Natural Domain –
beyond these limits.
The
components of a design "recipe" have been called design
specifications topics. They are related to specific building design categories.
The quantities assigned to each topic are mathematically correlated to
determine the shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and dominance implied. The
recipe quantities determine the quality of the cake long before its form is
determined and its icing is applied.
It
takes knowledge to bake a cake. It takes talent to produce appearance. Talent is
a gift more than an education. It builds on a recipe. Shelter capacity recipes produce
shelter intensity, intrusion, and dominance that can be recorded and improved with
forecast model measurement, evaluation, and prediction. The effort can build
knowledge and lead the ensuing design and construction steps required to
shelter growing populations on limited land areas over generations. Shelter
capacity in a limited Built Domain is the issue that faces us - and it has a
mathematical foundation.
The
point of my effort has been to define the components of building design
category recipes so that their quantities can be measured, correlated, and
evaluated to assess the capacity and intensity results planned or present. This
can build knowledge that will permit us to lead shelter design within the
geographic limits of a Built Domain that can protect both the quality of life
for growing populations and their source of life - the Natural Domain. It will
not happen with our current dependence on annexation to correct land use
allocation and economic productivity errors that multiply like Ponzi in the
absence of more informed leadership and decision-making. Plenty of time will be
left to debate the appearance applied to the fundamental shelter capacity and
intensity decisions that determine our physical, social, and economic quality
of life on land that must be shared with the Natural Domain and is not without
end.
During
my lifetime the focus has been on tactical shelter projects for the many
activities of growing populations. The focus has been on education, talent, and
experience without the kind of measurement, research, evaluation, and knowledge
accumulation that can support shelter capacity and design decisions with more
than opinion. The legal format for our current self-defeating, argumentative
process of land consumption without limit will not change until land use allocation
and shelter capacity decisions can be based on more than opinion.
Walter M. Hosack: February, 2024
