Combating Shelter Sprawl and Excessive Intensity

The quantity specification for a residential site plan determines the density that will be produced.

The Density Forecast Panel in Table 1 is a function of the project quantity definition provided in the shaded cells of the Land, Pavement, and Apartment Program Modules above, unpaved open space quantity choices from shaded cells A46-A64 in the panel, and floor quantity choices on line 44 of the panel. All density options calculated from these options in the Density Forecast Module are a function of the 68 shaded value decisions and options shown, and a change to one or more of them will change the density results calculated in cells C46-M64 of the Density Forecast Panel.

Table 1 should illustrate that 68 shelter design decisions lead to a density result in this example, and that density does not lead any of them. It is a hurdle that too often creates a guessing game with sprawl and excessive shelter intensity of questionable benefit to an entire municipal economy, and a threat to agriculture and the Natural Domain it consumes, as too-frequent results. Shelter capacity evaluation guided by Tegimenic forecast models and government leadership is one option, but it will not be easy to learn to live within limits.

The 260+ essays I have written on my blog at www.wmhosack.blogspot.com and my book, The Equations of Urban Design, are available to those who wish to pursue new efforts to lead shelter for the activities of growing populations within geographic limits defined to protect both their quality and source of life.

PS: Please see Table 2 for the calculated intensity and context implications of the Density Forecast Panel calculations in Table 1. As I’ve said before, these calculations are like the first blood pressure readings taken without the research needed to understand their health insights.

Walter M. Hosack, November 2025