NOTE: The shelter capacity of land is equal to the gross building area in square feet present or planned divided by the buildable project area in acres, except for future expansion area. The quantity introduced has many related implications such as but not limited to the scope of -- occupant activity, traffic generation, population capacity, revenue potential, construction expense, and return on investment implied by the square feet introduced.
Zoning ordinance regulations depend on itemized, independent standards that are not
mathematically correlated in many if not all cases. A residential density
limit that cannot be reached by the combination of applicable parking and floor
quantity limits involved is a common current example. This has often produced contentious
arguments, permitted exceptions, inconsistent precedent, excessive intensity, and
sprawl that has limited its zoning effectiveness as a leadership language.
Mathematically correlated design specification standards
produce shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications that
can be measured for evaluation and predicted for future planning and urban
design guidance. It has been my intent to define the terms shelter capacity,
intensity, intrusion, and context with mathematical specification values and
template forecast models for a building design category classification system.
The templates have been created to provide the mathematical format required for
consistent measurement and prediction of shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications
based on the values entered. This format can lead the efforts of many toward
shelter for the activities of growing populations within the sustainable,
symbiotic geographic limits that are required.
THE PROBLEM
Table A from “The Disorganized Zoning Ordinance” is
repeated at the end of this text. The point was to show that the organization
of itemized standards in a zoning ordinance were disconnected when compared to
the five chapter and nine section reorganization suggested in Table 2. The
underlying motive at the time was to relocate all applicable design standards that
were often buried with unrelated text throughout the ordinance.
Table 3 includes a sample dissection of a partial
section in the sample ordinance chosen. The table illustrates the heavy lifting
required to convert a section of the sample to the structure illustrated by
Table 2.
Each topic in Col. B of Table 3 is dissected and referenced
to the Table 2 sections that pertain, but the itemized format remains. The related
Table 2 sections are noted in Col. A of the table. Some additional notes are
also included.
Table 4 illustrates the distillation of all design
standards from the sample ordinance, and they were not all found in one location.
The result is a Table of Design Standards. It displays all relevant standards for
one zone on one line in one consolidated location for ease of reference and
consistency of application. Lack of adherence to a standard, however, still represents
an itemized offense requiring variance approval by a Board of Zoning
Adjustment.
Table 4 may represent a consolidated improvement over
scattered design requirements in a zoning ordinance, but it does not correlate
these complex standards to indicate their combined implications and realistically
achievable gross building area results. At the present time each collection of
line-item limits represents a puzzle that must often be solved with exception variances
in some, if not many, cases. This is not leadership with a goal. It is
regulation with an unknown future.
If city planning and urban design leadership is desired, the
ability to correlate diverse requirements is needed to produce gross building
area options that can reach shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context
goals without inconsistent exceptions that compromise the quality of life
desired.
THE SUGGESTION
Conceiving a method of measuring, evaluating, and
correlating site plan quantity decisions has been my objective, since
quantities are the foundation for all ensuing physical design, and we must move
beyond the puzzles represented by Table 4 before we can provide the shelter
portion of a sustainable, symbiotic goal.
Those of you who have read my previous essays know that I
began by classifying two worlds on a single planet, The Natural and Built
Domains. I theorized that the Built Domain anatomy contained Urban and Rural
Phyla, and that each phyla contained a Shelter Division served by arterial
divisions of Movement, Open Space, and Life Support, even though I admitted
that arteries of open space in the Built Domain were more of a dream than
reality.
I continued with the theory that shelter classification
contained only six building design categories based on the parking system
adopted, and that each responded to a specification template of topic variables
that could be mathematically correlated to produce measurable and predicable gross
building area, shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications.
Implications could then be evaluated with a mathematically correlated
leadership language, and knowledge could replace the presently itemized opinions
of zoning.
This meant that mathematical shelter capacity, intensity,
intrusion, and context planning prescriptions could be used as a language that
could lead shelter formation and organization toward protection of a city’s
physical, social, psychological, environmental, and economic health, safety,
and quality of life.
THE G1.L1 FORECAST MODEL
I’ve used Table 5 on many occasions for many reasons.
I’ll use it here to illustrate the point I’ve just made regarding architectural
quantity correlation. Table 5 predicts the gross building area potential of a
given buildable land area, excluding future expansion area, when using surface
parking around but not under the building. The option is referred to as the G1
Building Design Category.
The first thing to recognize is that occupant activity
occupies capacity and may be limited by the quantity available. For example, capacity
is a function of the design specification values entered into the gray cell
topics of the Table 5 template. These template topics vary with the building
design category and activity group involved.
Table 5 involves generic activity topics for the G1 Building
Design Category. It is unencumbered by specialized activity group functions
that require additional template topics, such as residential activity. The
generic shelter capacity of land is predicted in cells B44-B53. This is
determined by the design specification values entered and mathematically
correlated in the forecast model. A change to one or more of the values would
produce a new prediction of gross building area options in cells B44-B53. This
would also produce a revision to the capacity, intensity, intrusion, and
context implications calculated in cells F44-J53.
Any value entered in a gray cell of Table 5 is a variable. For
instance, the parking values entered in cells A35 and A36 are the most common
since they change with the occupant activity involved and affect the gross
building area that can be produced. The floor quantity values in cells A44-A53
may also be limited or expanded to influence gross building area potential.
The unpaved open space percentage entered in cell F11 is a
variable that has often remained unspecified in a zoning ordinance since it can
also limit achievable density, shelter capacity, and intensity, but this is a
serious mistake. It should at least be correlated with the storm sewer capacity
available, since inadequate correlation can contribute to capacity overload
without more sophisticated engineering modifications.
Table 5 differs from Table 4 because it is based on an
algorithm; and it immediately responds to the variables entered in its shaded
cells with a measurement of their implications in its Forecast Panel and Implications
Module. This means that design specification options capable of achieving the
same shelter capacity objective could be easily explored by rebalancing the
variables involved. This balancing discussion could even occur at joint
public/private conferences with the model as the center of attention.
If I’ve made my point, the interactive concept of correlated
shelter capacity evaluation illustrated by Table 5 can replace the static
regulation of Table 4. In fact, it has the potential to amend regulation with
cooperation among all parties concerned with the provision of shelter for
population activity. I have only provided a glimpse, however. Table 5 is one in
a series of forecast models that represent a suggested method of measuring and
predicting the shelter capacity, intensity, intrusion, and context implications
of design specification decisions. This is information that could be used to
build knowledge. The entire suggestion is presented in my book, “The Equations
of Urban Design” that is available on Amazon.com. I’m including its Table of
Contents as Table 6. The book discusses the building design categories,
activity groups, and forecast models that use embedded equations to provide
shelter capacity predictions for evaluation and guidance with a few keystrokes.
CONCLUSION
Some form of shelter capacity measurement and prediction is needed
to build the knowledge and defend the guidance required to protect populations
within geographic limits that recognize our responsibility to protect our
source of life. Our current methods of zoning regulation are an inadequate
response to the threat represented by annexation, excessive intensity and
sprawl based on inadequate knowledge and mistaken assumptions. It will continue
to consume agriculture and the Natural Domain until a leadership language equal
to the knowledge and guidance required is pursued. I have simply made one
suggestion in a discussion that deserves pursuit in my opinion.
Walter M. Hosack, January 2026









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